Why it’s trending
ArduPilot/ardupilot is accelerating — star growth is speeding up by +1.6/day (85th percentile in the tracked cohort), on top of +7.4 stars/day. Forks are climbing too, at +5.0/day.
Star acceleration +1.6/day (85th pctl)Star velocity +7.4/day (63th pctl)Fork velocity +5.0/day (88th pctl)
Figures drawn only from Breakwave data
Breakout forecast14-day horizon
81%breakout probability
Confidence100%
Elevated breakout odds over the next 14 days, led by star acceleration (85th pctl) and push recency (98th pctl). Confidence is high given the available history.
Momentum74Momentum Score (0–100): how fast this repo is accelerating compared with every other tracked repo — not how big it is.
Why it ranks here
Star acceleration85pctl
Star velocity63pctl
Fork velocity88pctl
Contributor growth36pctl
Push recency68pctl
Stars
15.9k
Forks
21.4k
Watchers
686
Open issues
1.7k
★ / day
+7.4
trailing 7d
Acceleration
+1.6
▲ velocity
Star growth over time
Reconstructed from 241 snapshots — the time-series GitHub’s API doesn’t expose.
Latest events
- Fork activity spikeSep 22, 2026
~14 forks/day, 3.8× the trailing baseline.
- Fork activity spikeSep 14, 2026
~16 forks/day, 3.6× the trailing baseline.
- Fork activity spikeSep 12, 2026
~14 forks/day, 12.1× the trailing baseline.
Add this to your README
Live score, refreshed every 6 hours. Links back to this page.
[](https://breakwave.vercel.app/repo/ArduPilot/ardupilot)